Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
