A mere 60 days prior that Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager admonished him over missing a through-ball. At that point, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason for Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. As the England international curled home his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery discarded his jacket, opened his arms and roared. The team continued to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win their opening six matches, now sit a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.
According to the data, in only two games has the side registered an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a club which has just won ten consecutive victories, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the margins are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to save the day with some precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened in London, and again versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the post from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents had more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction may well be the biggest rival they will encounter in the near future. The forward, surely, cannot maintain blasting his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the force he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished exactly since it feels so unlikely. As Rogers stood in front of the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
